Fatal Overdoses continue to show a decline both nationally (27.5% from the June 2023 rolling 12-month high) and here in Connecticut (32.7% from our rolling 12-month high of November 2021), according to just released data from the CDC which reflects their data through the end of October 2024. The national data reflects an annual decline of 29,446 deaths and the Connecticut data, 511 deaths. Those are no insignificant numbers.
From the data I have seen Connecticut overdoses will show a decline through the end of 2024, but may be inching back up again in 2025. I expect US overdoses to decline longer before eventually plateauing to its 2017-2018 levels and/or rising several months behind Connecticut’s progress. Connecticut, like much of the east coast where fentanyl first made its impact, reached its peak overdose sooner then the rest of the nation and thus also began showing declines sooner.
There are multiple reasons for the decline: from the increased availability of naloxone, to harm reduction messaging about the dangers of fentanyl, particularly when using alone, to the real possibility that the drug supply while still incredibly toxic, may contain less fentanyl than previously, reflecting either the difficulty of drug dealers getting fentanyl precursor chemicals, to increased profits by adding xylazine and other adulterants and fillers and less fentanyl, to simply trying to make a less lethal product to take some of the heat off the cartels.
What should we be doing? Keep getting the naloxone out there. Continue with harm reduction messaging. Be vigilant for an ever-changing drug supply that remains lethal. This battle is a long way from being over.