The monthly CDC provisional overdose death data was released on Wednesday, again revealing a continued decline in the nation’s overdose deaths. The data which covers a rolling 12-month period from January 2024 to December 2024 shows a 24.6% annual decline in reported deaths and a 28.7% decline from its peak rolling 12-month reported death high reached in June 2023, returning to a level last seen in May of 2020, shortly after COVID started.
Good news for sure. Also expected news based on reporting of previous months showing a significant downturn in the later months of 2024.
Here’s the problem. We’re halfway through May and the best data we have is four and a half months old.
Why are the overdoses going down? Many, including myself have speculated about this before. The increased availability of naloxone, improved treatment services, aggressive harm reduction outreach, a switch from people injecting opioids to the less dangerous smoking of them, improved tolerance of those still alive and the death of those who were maybe less careful, and finally, the one that we need to pay the most attention to – changes in the drug supply.
We cannot forget that in the latter half of 2024, reports of a fentanyl shortage were widespread. As overdoses plummeted here in Connecticut and elsewhere, users and drug checkers reported a lower strength in the street product. Early data I have seen here in Connecticut suggests overdoses are rising again beginning in January. What’s going on with the drug supply?
I hope no one is asleep at the wheel, that the big decline in overdoses has taken some of the urgency away from this terrible epidemic, and that any rise in the rate is just a temporary bump on the longer-term trend down.
I wish we had quicker, more definitive near-real time data and that those who collect the data are empowered to share it widely. We need not just death and nonfatal overdoses numbers, we need drug testing data.
We need to stay vigilant. Change is always expected. And we need to see it has it happens, not looking in the rear view mirror as we head toward a potential cliff.