There has been much speculation about why fatal overdose deaths have been declining nationwide.
Here are some of the reasons mentioned in a plethora of articles:
1. Increased Availability of Naloxone
2. Expanded Addiction Treatment
3. Shift from Injecting to Smoking and Other Safer Practices such a as Not Using Alone
4. Impact of Opioid Settlement Dollars
5. Decreased At-risk Population as Many Older Users Die and Fewer Young Users Enter.
6. End of COVID Isolation
7. Fentanyl Test Strips and Harm Reduction Efforts
8. Weaker Fentanyl and Less Toxic Drug Supply
This CNN article offers a novel theory:
Users are so dissatisfied with the current drug market –weaker fentanyl heavily adulterated with xylazine- that they are ready to quit.
“This is not what people signed up for,” says Nabarun Dasgupta, a University of North Carolina researcher, “It’s way more sedating. It’s way more unpredictable. It’s not as pleasurable.”
I heard a number of users last year say the drugs on the street were shit. I have never heard any of them say they were going to stop using because of that, although I suppose it could be an impetus to edging someone to finally quit and get help. I can’t say it is not plausible.
My fear is that if this is true, dealers will get wise, from the street level to the cartel level. If your product sucks and people stop buying, maybe you ought to improve it. No doubt they will if they haven’t already. I’ve heard fewer complaints this year, not that I talk to a large enough sample. All I can offer is anecdote. It would be a worthwhile study question. If the dope you’ve been buying lately has been really shit, would you consider stopping your drug use?
I’m keeping a close eye on Connecticut statistics. It’s too early to say for sure what 2025 will bring in the fatal number, but I can say that nonfatal overdoses have increased every month since last December on a per day basis and I believe fatals, which take longer to finalize will be up over the last six months of 2024 which showed steep declines. On a 12-month rolling basis, the increases might not show for another six months, but if we look on a month to month basis, they look they are rising.