Fatal overdoses have been dropping precipitously both in Connecticut and nationwide. While Connecticut, after a steady decline in the latter half of 2024, did see a steady rise in overdoses earlier this year culminating in a peak in June, the overdoses have since resumed their downward plummet.
According to CDC data, fatal overdoses were down in Connecticut 41% through April of this year from the rolling 12-month high reached in November of 2021. Nationwide, they were down 34% from the national 12-month high of June 2023.
There has been lots of speculation why overdoses have been dropping: increased availability of naloxone, increased access to drug treatment, a thinning of the herd, harm reduction messaging about the dangers of fentanyl, particularly when using alone, and a less toxic drug supply (reflecting either the difficulty of drug dealers getting fentanyl precursor chemicals, their desire to increase profits by adding xylazine and other adulterants and fillers and less fentanyl, or simply to make a less lethal product to take some of the heat off the cartels).
Here are two charts that make the case for decreased fentanyl purity and expanded naloxone availability being central drivers in the downturn.
Decreased Fentanyl Purity
Expanded Naloxone Distribution
In the chart above each naloxone number represents 100 naloxone kits.
Let’s hope the trend continues. Unofficial data from Connecticut looks promising.