In October of 2023, there were curious headlines out of Mexico that the Sinaola Cartel was getting out of the fentanyl business. Mexican Sinaloa Cartel’s Message to Members: Stop Making Fentanyl or Die blared the headline in the Wall Street Journal expose.
According to the report, this written warning appeared throughout Sinaloa: “In Sinaloa, the sale, manufacture, transportation, or any type of business that involves the substance known as fentanyl is strictly prohibited, including the sale of chemicals for its production…You’ve been warned, sincerely: Chapitos.”
The Chapitos are the sons of the original jefe, and their papa, El Chapo, currently in a maximum security prison in the USA.
USA Today journalists did a follow-up story in December, Are the Sinaloa Cartel’s ‘Chapitos’ really getting out of the fentanyl business? In the article they interviewed low level cartel traffickers who said they were afraid to manufacture and traffic fentanyl due to the threats, while a DEA expert called the move “propaganda.”
The Drug Enforcement Administration in their 2024 Drug Threat Assessment (May 2024) provided this official analysis:
The ban is probably a public relations stunt, however, or an attempt by the cartels to consolidate production among a smaller number of trusted manufacturers and punish others. Throughout 2023, fentanyl was seized at the border in equal or higher quantities as in previous years, and no DEA field office reported that fentanyl is less available or more expensive, either of which would point to a decrease in the supply.
Still in October of 2024, NPR reported: The pipeline of deadly fentanyl into the U.S. may be drying up, experts say They reported a drop in fentanyl purity in parts of the US and reported drug seizures are down considerably in 2024. They quoted a drug expert speculating, that the cartels may be “weakening the potency of street fentanyl” to reduce law enforcement attention.
My sources here in Connecticut report the same. Drug users report less potent product on the street and local street drug testing shows lower purity.
One thing is clear, fatal drug overdoses are down dramatically in the US and are continuing to drop. What part off this is due to a less toxic street supply with lower fentanyl purity and increasing use of less lethal adulterants like xylazine, is less clear. Widespread naloxone availability, increased harm reduction efforts and a focus on treatment, particularly medication assisted therapy may also be having a large impact on the declining death rate.